Pick any potential set of problems or open Pandora’s box just a crack and, unfortunately, all sorts of catastrophes suggest themselves. There are one-thousand and one ways in which the United States can be blindsided. There are also billions of us. These days it takes only a few to do significant damage. Try, then, to identify potential sources of trouble. They come in too many shapes and sizes.
That is one problem. A second is that if no one can divine what types of threats the government should most worry about, how does it properly and prudently allocate resources? The U.S. treasury is not bottomless.
[So]… how much sense does it make to try to calculate what we should do, especially when we already know we will be surprised by whatever it is we haven’t considered?… Our argument: why not consider a series of “if… thens”: If the United States more effectively monitored trends, movements, and rumblings abroad, then that would mitigate the likelihood of surprise. If America were to get hit despite this but citizens were prepared to absorb the blow, then the surprise wouldn’t paralyze us. If the United States had a series of counterresponses prepared in advance, then no enemy could gain from our misfortune. If, meanwhile, the U.S. government advertised its preparations ahead of time, then who would want to bother attacking us at all?
Chapter Subheadings
The Grand Strategic Imperative – “Align Ends, Ways, and Means”
Why Should They Call the Shots?
Playing to Strength
Sovereignty Solution 